Decoding Election Day, state-by-state

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - There are a number of smart election previews out there.

Ready for one more?

Here are the things I'm watching for in every state, on every level.

Alabama: While the state isn't really in play on the presidential level, there are a couple of hot House races, including a very rare open Democratic seat in the 5th District. The 2nd District, an open Republican seat, is also competitive. The large turnout among African-Americans could give Democrats a sweep of both. Tip: Keep an eye on outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Riley – his term ends in 2010. One would think he might attempt to become a player in national politics. The party will be searching for new leaders.

Alaska: Before John McCain picked Sarah Palin, I used to say, "As Alaska goes, so goes the landslide." My reasoning had everything to do with the battering the state's two longtime Republican congressional leaders – Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young – were taking in the press and in the courts. The sour mood among Republicans inside the state seemed to be doing enough damage that Obama would be competitive with McCain in the state.

Arizona: Could Arizona be to McCain what Tennessee was to Gore? Possibly, but is it what Tennessee was to Gore in 1996 or 2000? What folks don't realize is that Tennessee almost slipped away from the Clinton-Gore ticket in '96 but was saved at the last minute. I think that's what's happening in Arizona. This is a lean-Red swing state that every two years during the last eight has shown evidence of moving toward the Democrats. If McCain weren't on the ballot, Obama would have contested this state from the beginning. Democrats are targeting the open GOP House seat in the 1st District, one of the  largest in the country and even think they could pull an upset in the 3rd. I doubt that one myself. Tip: If McCain loses, the next good political story in the state will be his Senate re-election bid in 2010. Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano is term-limited and loves to read polls matching her up with McCain in 2010.

Arkansas: This could be the only state Obama doesn't carry that sports a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. As Obama's poll numbers have surged in a bunch of states, one of the most surprising things is the numbers haven’t moved in Arkansas. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama beat the spread in Arkansas if one assumes the spread is, say, 15 points.

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California: As unpopular as Bush supposedly has been in California, he only lost the state by 11 points in both 2000 and 2004. So what happens with McCain in '08? I think Obama's margin in this state will tell us a lot about Democratic enthusiasm among the base. Anything above 15 points for Obama probably means he will have some coattails down the ballot. And frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if some two to four GOP incumbents go down, shocking  folks in Washington (Reps. Mary Bono-Mack? David Dreier?) No one is safe in this Blue state.

Colorado: What a transformation. The Democratic dominance is taking place so fast that it appears the state forgot it was supposed to stop in "toss-up" land on its way from Red to Blue status. Democrats could win another House seat in the state, another Senate seat and see Obama carry the state. If I were the Republican Party, I'd make Michigan and Colorado my petri dishes for experiments to get the party's groove back. Until the GOP can appeal to secular independents in the West and working class Democrats in the Midwest, they are going to be a minority party. The party's comeback should start in one of these two states because they  are microcosms of the GOP's issues.

Connecticut: There is just one race to watch this cycle and that's Chris Shays' House race. He's the lone remaining Republican in the House from New England. His potential defeat puts a period on a trend line that explains why the Republicans have become a minority party. Just like the Democrats and the South in the '90s, when a party deserts one region, they desert their chances of remaining a majority party. But even if Shays loses, don't write his political obituary yet. Chris Dodd is going to have a tough re-election fight in 2010, defending his tenure as Senate Banking Committee chairman and if Shays still has the ambition, he would be a nightmare opponent for Dodd.

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Delaware: I think we can safely assume that Joe Biden will win re-election. (Don't forget, he's on the ballot twice in the state because his seat is up). The state's electing a new governor with Democrat Jack Markell the likely victor. The real intrigue in this state begins on Nov. 5 if the Obama-Biden ticket wins. There will be a Senate appointment. Who will get the gig? The unofficial politician who should be next in line is Republican Mike Castle. Of course, a Democratic governor wouldn't appoint a Republican, but it probably means Castle will challenge whoever gets appointed unless Biden talks Castle into switching parties.

Florida: One of the underreported stories of the cycle in this key presidential battleground state is the amount of House races being targeted. On a mediocre night for the Democrats, they should net at least one seat (they'll knock off two incumbents in the Orlando area and lose the Tim Mahoney seat). It's possible they could win another two seats in South Florida, as both Diaz-Balart brothers are in very tough fights with Cuban Democrats. That's right, the Cuban electorate may no longer be monolithic. And if Obama carries the state and one of these Cuban Republicans loses their House seat, it will be one of the bigger realignment stories in the state. If Republicans start losing their edge among Cubans in South Florida, it's a devastating blow for the GOP.

Georgia: Has this state really slipped into the toss-up category? Possibly. A few years ago, I asked a smart Democratic demographer which states could become competitive if the party could maximize voter registration and turnout among African-Americans. This demographer pointed to three states: Georgia, Louisiana (pre-Katrina) and Mississippi. So we'll see. But the real action in this state is in the Senate race where Republican Saxby Chambliss appears to be headed to a runoff with Democrat Jim Martin. The state has the odd law that if no candidate gets more than 50 percent, there's a runoff. This happened in 1992 when a Libertarian candidate nabbed a couple of points, and it’s happening again. The runoff will be in early December.

Hawaii: Nothing hot on the ballot other than the state's native son running for president. Will Hawaii become the new Western White House if Obama wins? That's the question every prospective White House correspondent in the country wants to know. Honolulu vs. Crawford … hmmm. Hawaii could become very powerful in Congress if Daniel Inouye is elevated to Senate Appropriations chair in place of an ailing Robert Byrd. Tip: Keep an eye on Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, who could be thrown into the national spotlight if Obama does indeed put Hawaii on the map as his Western White House. 

Idaho: The problems for the GOP have even spread to this normally rock-ribbed Republican state. Most House race bean counters have already assumed Democrats will knock off Republican Bill Sali. Could a Sali loss, combined with a couple of Club for Growth-supported incumbent losses in Michigan and Maryland lead to an internal fight inside the Republican Party over the power of that group in certain Republican primaries? It looks to me like the Club is seeing a lot of its conservative success stories struggling to hold seats that a Republican shouldn't have trouble keeping.

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